Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.043679 0.049344 0.055638 0.063178 0.072006 0.082064 0.094458
2026-02-01 0.033667 0.040386 0.048427 0.058854 0.072165 0.088781 0.111408
2026-02-08 0.028013 0.035408 0.044857 0.058025 0.076245 0.101089 0.138466
2026-02-15 0.023745 0.031448 0.041893 0.057455 0.080707 0.115282 0.172861
2026-02-22 0.020633 0.028531 0.039852 0.057831 0.086801 0.133823 0.220939
2026-03-01 0.018067 0.025982 0.037921 0.058056 0.092947 0.154725 0.282483
2026-03-08 0.015606 0.023218 0.035221 0.056575 0.096116 0.172082 0.346940
2026-03-15 0.013150 0.020107 0.031482 0.052637 0.094071 0.179515 0.396085
2026-03-22 0.011793 0.018578 0.030126 0.052696 0.099828 0.205440 0.506418
2026-03-29 0.010812 0.017541 0.029456 0.053940 0.108566 0.242255 0.676080
2026-04-05 0.009822 0.016351 0.028324 0.054059 0.115070 0.277347 0.875947
2026-04-12 0.008932 0.015221 0.027128 0.053818 0.120834 0.314126 1.126429
2026-04-19 0.008019 0.013950 0.025505 0.052399 0.123593 0.345245 1.404496
2026-04-26 0.007136 0.012630 0.023592 0.049940 0.122947 0.366163 1.674964
2026-05-03 0.006593 0.011908 0.022820 0.050078 0.129941 0.419545 2.240679
2026-05-10 0.006118 0.011266 0.022125 0.050279 0.137422 0.481740 3.039041
2026-05-17 0.005746 0.010788 0.021720 0.051169 0.147721 0.566241 4.327646
2026-05-24 0.005398 0.010319 0.021265 0.051840 0.157795 0.661305 6.199726
2026-05-31 0.004993 0.009682 0.020327 0.050936 0.161916 0.731628 8.238735
2026-06-07 0.004508 0.008818 0.018731 0.047763 0.156119 0.741162 9.469468
2026-06-14 0.004255 0.008448 0.018299 0.048060 0.164772 0.853111 13.776745
2026-06-21 0.004074 0.008221 0.018194 0.049379 0.178701 1.024006 22.250896
2026-06-28 0.003861 0.007897 0.017795 0.049658 0.188307 1.181290 34.266240